Following high-profile events like the Covenant School shooting in Nashville—where the perpetrator, a woman identifying as a man, gunned down innocent Christian schoolchildren—media narratives and activist claims intensified around transgender victimhood. Amidst widespread national grief, some progressive voices quickly pivoted the focus, declaring that transgender people are disproportionately targeted for violence and murder in American society. One activist, identifying as a “trans woman,” went so far as to declare a “war against cisgender people” in a social media tirade shortly after the shooting.
This blog post critically examines the claim that transgender individuals are murdered at rates higher than the general population. It also explores the context of these murders: Were the victims engaged in high-risk behaviors? Do the claims hold up against broader crime data? Or are we seeing ideological narratives eclipse the real facts?
Definitions and Terms
To ensure clarity, here are key terms used throughout this essay:
- Transgender: An individual whose gender identity differs from their biological sex at birth.
- Cisgender: A person whose gender identity aligns with their biological sex.
- Transgender Woman: A biological male who identifies as female.
- Transgender Man: A biological female who identifies as male.
- Sex Work: The exchange of sexual services for money or goods, including prostitution.
Activist Claims and Public Perception
Activist organizations such as the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) and Everytown for Gun Safety have repeatedly claimed that transgender individuals—particularly transgender women of color—are under threat in the United States. These organizations produce annual reports highlighting the number of transgender or gender non-conforming individuals murdered each year, often describing these deaths as hate crimes.
The narrative suggests that these individuals are being “hunted” or “targeted” simply for existing as transgender. These claims gain widespread traction in the media and are sometimes used to justify aggressive political rhetoric, even violence.
But are these claims backed by statistical reality?
Reviewing the Numbers: Murder Rates and Population Size
Everytown reported that from 2017 to 2023, at least 263 transgender or gender-expansive individuals were murdered in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. In 2023 alone, there were 35 such murders, 80% involving firearms.
To understand this figure, we must consider the estimated population of transgender individuals. The Williams Institute estimates there are about 1.6 million transgender individuals in the U.S. That yields a homicide rate of about 2.19 per 100,000 for 2023.
By comparison, the general U.S. murder rate in recent years has fluctuated between 5.0 and 6.5 per 100,000. On a raw national level, transgender individuals do not appear to be murdered at a higher rate than the general population. But these numbers change dramatically when narrowing the data by subgroup—particularly transgender women of color involved in high-risk behaviors.
Contextualizing the Deaths: High-Risk Behaviors and Urban Violence
Many transgender murder victims are not ordinary citizens walking home from work. In many cases, the victims were engaged in sex work, involved in drug activity, or were located in high-crime urban environments—all factors that elevate homicide risk for anyone, regardless of gender identity.
Prostitution and Transgender Vulnerability
According to advocacy research, transgender individuals—especially transgender women—are significantly more likely to engage in sex work. The National Center for Transgender Equality found that 1 in 8 transgender people had engaged in sex work, with the rate even higher among Black and Latino trans individuals.
Prostitution is inherently dangerous. It places individuals in close contact with strangers, often in unregulated, criminal settings. For transgender sex workers, these dangers multiply due to the added threat of gender-related violence or deception-related conflict.
Case Studies: What the Data Reveals
Let’s explore some individual cases that offer insight into the actual causes and contexts of these murders:
Angie Zapata (2008 – Colorado)
Angie Zapata, an 18-year-old transgender woman, was beaten to death by a man who later discovered her biological sex. The case resulted in Colorado’s first hate crime conviction involving a transgender victim.
- Activity: Dating and sexual activity under deceptive pretenses.
- Cause: Reaction to perceived betrayal.
Muhlaysia Booker (2019 – Texas)
Booker, a 23-year-old Black transgender woman, was fatally shot in Dallas. She had previously been beaten in a viral video altercation and was known to be in high-risk environments.
- Activity: Urban street life, potential prostitution.
- Cause: Street violence; motives unclear.
Nina Pop (2020 – Missouri)
Pop, a 28-year-old transgender woman, was stabbed in her apartment. The case was investigated as a potential hate crime but also involved a male sex partner.
- Activity: Domestic or sexual relationship.
- Cause: Interpersonal violence.
Meghan Lewis (2023 – Maryland)
Lewis was fatally shot after an altercation in which the suspect claimed he was provoked and acted in self-defense. Witnesses said Lewis was misgendered during the altercation.
- Activity: Confrontation; possibly targeted for advocacy.
- Cause: Argument turned violent.
In multiple cases, victims were either engaged in sex work, deception about their biological sex, or high-risk confrontations. While some incidents clearly involved transphobic motives, many others seem to stem from dangerous contexts that would place anyone at increased risk of death.
Comparing City-Level Murder Rates
The activists’ claims gain further scrutiny when comparing transgender murder rates in specific cities to those cities’ general homicide rates.
For example, if a transgender individual is killed in a city like Baltimore, Detroit, or St. Louis—where homicide rates hover between 40 and 60 per 100,000—one must ask: Is the person being killed because they are transgender, or simply because they live in one of the deadliest places in America, and are involved in a high-risk lifestyle?
In most urban settings where transgender homicides occur, the murder rate already far exceeds the transgender national average. Therefore, the claim of targeted extermination by a transphobic public begins to crumble under local data analysis.
Are Transgender Prostitute Deaths Higher Than Average?
Yes—and for reasons unrelated to identity alone.
The general murder rate in the United States may be 5–6 per 100,000. But among prostitutes, the homicide rate has been estimated to range between 204 and 229 per 100,000, according to a 2004 study by the University of California.
If transgender individuals are overrepresented among prostitutes—as data shows—they are likely being murdered not because of transphobia per se, but because they are involved in one of the most dangerous professions in the country. The same risk applies to cisgender female sex workers.
Thus, if the transgender murder rate exceeds national averages, it is statistically linked to this high-risk behavior rather than a uniquely transphobic epidemic.
The Role of Media and Ideological Spin
The tragedy of any person’s murder should never be minimized. However, politicizing these events through a one-sided lens distorts public perception and distracts from real, preventable causes.
Organizations that frame each transgender death as a hate crime—without investigating the context—do the public a disservice. They elevate ideology above truth, and potentially redirect resources away from where they are actually needed: battling urban violence, poverty, and the social breakdown that pushes marginalized individuals into dangerous professions.
Conclusion
The claim that transgender individuals are “targeted for murder” by society at large is not substantiated by nationwide homicide data. While certain transgender subgroups—especially those engaged in sex work and living in high-crime urban areas—do face higher murder rates, these risks are shared by all individuals in similar circumstances.
In short:
- Trans people are not being hunted in America.
- Many transgender murders occur in contexts of sex work, deception, or domestic violence.
- Murder rates for transgender individuals not involved in high-risk behavior are in line with national averages.
- Activist claims often obscure the real, preventable causes of violence.
A just society must be willing to acknowledge uncomfortable truths: some transgender people face danger not because of bigotry, but because of their lifestyle choices and environment. The solution is not inflammatory rhetoric or ideological warfare, but common-sense criminal justice reform, outreach to at-risk individuals, and a focus on the moral restoration of America’s cultural foundation.
S.D.G.,
Robert Sparkman
rob@basedchristianity.org
PS I do not acknowledge that anyone “transitions” from one gender to another. I do not acknowledge that “cisgender” is a valid designation. If I use terms related to transgenderism, it needs to be understood that I am communicating in the clearest manner possible using their worldview’s language which is based upon the woke claims that I do not affirm. Otherwise, it would make my communication more awkward and confusing to some. RLS.
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